[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Ferrochrome prices continue to rise, chrome ore market remains stable and improving

On August 15, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was 7,900-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quoted price was 8,100-8,250 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in South Africa, it was 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); and in Kazakhstan, it was 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis.

This week, the ferrochrome market performed well, with retail prices continuing to rise. Expectations for steel mill tenders turned optimistic, and inquiry and transaction sentiment strengthened. On the cost side, the sixth round of coke price increases officially took effect, leading to a further rise in coke costs for ferrochrome production. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices rose slightly amid positive expectations, coupled with the impact of vehicle traffic restrictions at Tianjin Port, resulting in tight chrome ore shipping capacity, rising freight costs, and increased ore usage costs. Additionally, some producers used high-priced chrome ore purchased earlier, further driving up ferrochrome smelting costs. Overall, the cost pressure for ferrochrome production increased, supporting high ferrochrome prices. Producers' refusal to budge on prices became evident, with quoted prices continuing to rise. Retail ferrochrome prices increased by 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) during the week, concentrating within the 7,900-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) range. On the supply and demand side, South African chrome producer Glencore-Merafe stated in a report that its currently suspended ferrochrome smelting operations have no production resumption plans within 2025, implying that overseas ferrochrome imports will remain reduced, stimulating domestic ferrochrome producers to actively increase production to fill the supply gap. Meanwhile, the downstream stainless steel market continued to be influenced by positive macro policies, entering the traditional peak consumption season of "September-October peak season". Futures and spot prices recovered and rose, with steel mill planned production increasing to a high of 3.3 million mt and expectations for further production increases. The procurement demand for ferrochrome is being gradually released, driving the ferrochrome market upwards. Overall, the supply and demand of ferrochrome maintained a tight balance, and it is expected that the ferrochrome market will primarily operate positively, driven by both costs and demand.

On the raw material side, on August 15, 2025, the spot price of 40-42% South African chrome ore fines at Tianjin Port was 55-56 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore was 49-51 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate fines was 57.5-58.5 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate fines was 59-60 yuan/mtu; and 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu, unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis. On the futures side, the offer for 40-42% South African chrome ore fines was 267-275 US dollars/mt; and for 48-50% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate fines, it was 335-345 US dollars/mt, unchanged on a MoM basis.

This week, the chrome ore market operated generally stable with a slight rise. Futures and spot prices rose simultaneously, with increased downstream inquiries and procurement activities, and improved transaction activity. On the spot side, chrome ore spot prices increased by 0.5-1 yuan/mtu during the week, with Zimbabwe chrome concentrate fines performing prominently and South African chrome ore remaining relatively stable. On one hand, downstream ferrochrome production increased, leading to more purchase and restocking activities, and inquiry enthusiasm rose. On the other hand, affected by the vehicle traffic control at Tianjin Port from late August to early September, many ferrochrome producers recently purchased chrome ore for early stockpiling, resulting in an increase in spot chrome ore trading volume. This week, the total chrome ore inventory at ports was 3.0891 million mt, down 1.88% MoM. Among them, the total chrome ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 2.4604 million mt, down 2.05% MoM. In addition, most of the current arrivals are high-priced chrome ore from earlier periods, with traders holding high inventory costs. Coupled with the concentrated supply of chrome ore and the sellers' reluctance to sell, some traders are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, planning to trade after chrome ore prices rise. On the macro side, there has been no follow-up news on the chrome ore export control policies in South Africa and Zimbabwe. However, during the week, Glencore-Merafe, a South African chrome company, stated in a report that it supports the South African government's measures to promote the development of the South African ferrochrome industry by providing power agreements, reducing illegal exports, and expanding special economic zones, but opposes the proposal to impose taxes on chrome ore exports, believing that it harms the interests of non-integrated producers. It is estimated that the chrome ore market will continue to operate steadily and improve, and SMM will continue to monitor the subsequent development of chrome ore policies in South Africa and Zimbabwe.